US election 2024: When will we know the result as Kamala Harris and Donald Trump face off in November 5 poll

A few hours, a few days, more than a month… just how long will it take for us to know who’s won between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump?

Voters go to the polls on November 5 in one of the most important presidential campaigns for years. What is at risk (in Trump’s view) is the survival of the country.

What is at issue (as Harris claims) is, whether democracy does exist at all.

The former president says he will only accept a result that is “fair”, given previous allegations that he was barred from the presidency via the Democrats with Joe Biden in 2020.

Not any court has endorsed that assertion either. Still, Trump has managed to brainwash tens of millions of people that nothing but electoral fraud can prevent him from becoming a president of a rare second term in office.

In the wake of the 2020 election cycle, inflammatory entertainers Trump brought into the White House as advisors such as Rudy Giuliani embarked on a strange crusade to prosecute the case of fraud and the presdient himself incited his supporters to storm the Congress on January 6, 2021.

Biden’s victory was cemented and Harris became the Vice President after the very deadly day. 

This time, however, the Republicans merely look much better placed to challenge election outcomes that they do not favour - and Democrats are equally prepared for it.

Usually, a result to the US presidential elections is determined on the night. American networks engaged in conducting their own surveys on early voting and exit have habits of being very fast in announcing the results as soon as the actual polling places in each state are closed.

North American Continental has four time zones. The polls will be closed at 6 p.m. Eastern Time in some areas of Indiana and Kentucky and at 11 p.m. Pacific Time in California and Washington state and an hour later in Alaska and Hawaii.

All of the electoral vote states of interest – including Arizona and Nevada in the western part of the country – will have voted by 9 p.m. (That is 2:00 AM in UK time on November 6.)

Ideally, there should be a clear result by then since it is a competition, says Dr Fikkert. But this is no ordinary election, which means that any analysis based on predictions obtained elsewhere and past usual parliamentary elections cannot but be problematic.

In the first place, recounts in closely fought counties will do so. We then have to factor in early voting (cross country, voters are allowed to vote at special polling stations other than on Election Day) and postal votes. 

The majority of states do not permit those ballots to be tabulated until polls have closed on November 5. That is intended to prevent the iDeal voting from compromising the voting in person on the day. But that meant everything got significantly slowed down in 2020 when the number of ballots cast early or by post was much larger than normal (nearly half), because of the Covid pandemic.

After that, it again took four days for all the votes to be tallied before Biden asserted his win, allowing Trump supporters to spread their crazy conspiracy theories.

This time around, Republican-led states have sought to limit people’s options and are also challenging the legitimacy of vote by mail, something Trump has claimed without any evidence as being part of a Democrat plot to steal the election with the assistance of non-citizens.

And Trump supporters sit on many more election boards than in the year 2020, which actually means the chance of a challenge being heard and then sustained is so much higher here. 

Georgia is one such state where his friends have already begun manipulating this system, and there was a judge’s decision that canceled some of the usually absurd pro-Trump decisions.

More hearings in front of the judiciary appear virtually inevitable after November 5 with both the ostentatious Republicans and the Democrats readying a second line of lawyers to take to the post-election playing field.

It risks another 2000, the year that marked the Bush v Gore scandal when the Supreme Court intervened and decided the election in Republicans’ favor 35 days after Election Day halting a recount in Florida.

November 5 is not the only date you have to look forward to. Electors from the Electoral College are supposed to meet in each state on December 17 for the purpose of the certification. That is usually a formality. If Trump loses, more trouble should follow then.

Then comes the key flashpoint from last time: the announcement of the result to the congress on the 6th of January, 2025.

In 2020, just the mention of electoral fraud would set the Trump’s supporters on edge. Now, he says God wants him to triumph after he emerged unscathed from two murder plots. His followers make threats about what happen to people who do not believe in the prophet they revere.

Therefore, people prepare for an even more explosive period after the elections – Trump also promises to unleash the armed forces against democrats who will object in case he will win.

A good part of that will eventually be revealed as bluffing. Yet it could be years, then another presidency to go through January 20, 2025, before it materialises.