Where should high school basketball players go? College basketball confidential

There has been one major unforeseen — but perfectly predictable — side effect to the current three-headed transformation of college basketball. Due to name, image and likeness, the transfer portal and NCAA giving players an extra year of play because of COVID-19, high school recruits have been degraded heavily. At the high major programs it has become even more difficult for the freshmen to get minutes or dollars. 
 
There are exceptions, there always will be for a five-star prospect or whomever will be the next hot commodity name. But underneath those couple of elite prospect, what is motivating the coaches to run or pay freshmen when they can have the veterans, the already tried and true Division I players, who are now in some form of eternity free agency? Today, all-conference guys from mid-major schools are worth more contemporary than four-star freshmen. 
 
“I think even a five-star kid,“ shrugged another mid-major head coach, granted anonymity in order to speak frankly. “You look at all those five-star kids that didn’t play and transferred this year, right?” Until the end of the season, 7 five-star players and 17 top-50 recruits of the 2023 class changed the college teams after their freshmen year. The coach continued: “I was speaking to a friend of mine who in the last three years had seven players from mid-major transferring to high-major, and all seven are making six figures. That is the current pitch he gives: ‘We moved seven of them to the high-major, and they are all making six figures. ’ 
 
The theory: High school players majority should go to whatever level they will be playing a lot right from there and rake up the stats. 
 
The girls also depicted the promotion process with simplicity when the coach said; ‘You produce, and you move up and, you make more money’. “You look at our level: It’s almost like the first-team, second-team all-league, that’s the recruiting list for these high-majors. 
 
Data supports that theory. A case in point is the American Athletic Conference. This year, out of the 10 players selected to this year’s All-AAC first or second team, one went pro while one returned to the same school he played for last year, and eight of them moved to new colleges and joined high-major programs, of which, five joined SEC programs and three joined the Big Ten. From the AAC, it is obvious that Chris Youngblood, Jason Edwards and Lu’Cye Patterson are the archetypes of this approach. Youngblood played Kennesaw State next to South Florida and Alabama. He originally went to junior college then transferred to North Texas, then to Vanderbilt. Charlette and Minnesota are other teams that Patterson played for after Missouri State. 
 
“Frankly, I would advise them not to care which kind of level you play,” the high-major player who transferred this offseason remarked. “We’ve had college transfers come, join our team and go all the way up to the NBA directly from a small, mid-major college. My message to (recruits) is not about the level at which you begin but the level at which you will end up – that comes out of talent. 
 
For the list, 194 players moved from low and mid major college basketball conferences to one of the five major college hoops conferences namely the ACC (47), the Big Ten (47), the SEC (40), the Big 12 (36), and the Big East (24) during the off season. Twelve low- and mid-major conferences sent more than a half-dozen players to the big leagues this year: AAC had 29 member schools followed by Missouri Valley 20, Atlantic 10 16, Mountain West 14, CAA 14, Southern 9, Ivy League 9, West Coast 8, Big west 8, Sun belt 8, MAC 8 and Summit league 7. Three Division II players, one Division III player an NAIA player and a Canadian college player all moved up to high-major college basketball this spring. 
 
So, when The Athletic was polling 21 Division I head coaches and the assistants on what they had to tell a non-five-star high school recruit, we got plenty of responses that said “score big points in a smaller league, then get a paycheck” but not all of them were in for this strategy. 
 
High-major head coach 1: Is it development, or burn, that figured most prominently into the hazing experiences of college football players? If it is about playing time then reduce it even more. Bottom line. If it is about development than it is clear where to go – to the place that believes in you and provides an opportunity to develop. However, the truth is, irrespective of whether it’s a four-star, five-star, it is a miniscule part of players who are prepared to step into the ground and perform immediately. That to me is the way I would look at it. 
 
High-major head coach 2: The high school players have been royally screwed with the added COVID year. Transfers, or the ability to move to different college without reserve, followed it. I agree with the statement by identifying these two things as seriously impacting the high school recruiting. Now, the extra COVID year is transforming into a non-existence thing after this year’s season, thus we are going to have better value in the high school players although it can never be the same as it was even five years ago. I would advice them that If I was their parent, the best place have to be found where one can have the best success. Needless to say, once you get a high-major and proven status you remain a high-major and proven team. There are many of these guys that discover a great value at a mid-major and go there for a year and they are recruited and sought after like everyone else. 
 
High-major assistant coach 1: Get to somewhere you know you can play for sure immediately. 
 
High-major assistant coach 2: Now, if you really still care about all the things that people used to care about which are going to great school, being developed and playing for the winner program then you can still go there. I think if you are specifically aiming to earn as much as possible you are better off as a player playing as many games as possible at a lower level and know that the next year being a star in the lower division you will be a highly sought item and can move to another team for good money. A four star kid that is not going to play is not going to make as much money, whereas if four-star kid went down to a mid-major and perform well, immediately, he becomes worth it.

Mid-major assistant coach 1: A one-bid league, those aren’t dream schools to kids. But schools like ours, kids have been going to our games since sixth, seventh grade, they see on TV, they know who we are — dream school situations. If you don’t really have a school like that, then I would go somewhere you really believed you could score well. Since, once you have posted numbers, now you really stand a good chance of making a lot of money. But just know: You are going there for rather egocentric concerns. Children are stupid youth, mate, and this is a lot of s— for them to digest. The NBA systematically eliminated players like these 18-year-olds having that much money; that is why they adopted one-and-done. Kids couldn’t handle it. Physically they are well built; mentally they are not. Of course their game can’t handle this s—. So for a kid to first of all have that kind of mindset, and then to still be able to go somewhere and perform tasks that the coaches assign them, but at the back of your mind you know you’re there to drop points so you can go earn dollars, it’s tough, man. 
 
Low-major head coach 1: I would be looking for somewhere I’d have a chance to play pretty early because my chances of establishing myself as someone of value and then maybe the next time through the cycle, I could maybe earn some money on the way up as opposed to going somewhere that you’re not going to play for two or three years. It’s all about production. I think right now, we are very much into the Major League Baseball, the professional baseball; okay, junior college is the rookie league, NAIA low Division II is the single A, and really good Division II or low Division I is the double A, going to the triple A mid-major and we have the big leagues, which are the seven or eight leagues of the country. Once you prove it at one level, you are going up to the next level and that is encouraging, and to me that is the best motivation. If the people you know are professional Baseball players, they let you know that the saying, gotta get at-bats, is very true. If they don’t get to play then they cannot show that they can or cannot do this or that. Well, I think I’d be looking somewhere I could play Well, actually something that I found quite interesting which maybe other people find quite boring is that what I would be looking at is where I could play. 
 
Low-major head coach 2: If you wish to get some real dollars then have an all conference season, couple of great years consecutively, your team qualify to the NCAA Tournament and go cash $600,000 at the SEC. High school kids should not be looking for the most money now at a place where they cannot even play. I ain’t chasing no number in a place I can’t play just because it’s going to cost me money in the back end. As if sometimes you are out of the team because of various factors, now all of the sudden your market value is low. It just feels wrong in my bones to tell people, ‘Come here for couple of years and then transfer to the higher major and then get paid better,’ but that’s what you have to do. I still like to market the four-year experience, the ‘long-term development’ and all that, but that ain’t what people are considering, and you have to follow that route. It makes you sick. 
 
Mid-major head coach 1: I think there is somewhere down the progression that there is a path where you can at least stay at one university more than one year. You can create and those guys can contribute to create around you. It may take some time, and it is OK Even if people fail to commit to it sometimes, and that is understandable. I consider that probably for the fourth or fifth year and hire four or five persons, most likely, I mean four. Who will I be going to play next year? I’m gonna play the men, not the boys. 
 
Low-major head coach 3: If I sit here and think about the present and I came from a high-major, I would tell a kid to go to a mid-major plus mid-major freshman then transfer out. Basically, if you want to go get numbers, go rock out at a mid-major or mid-major plus school, and get your numbers and then be able to go to a (high-major), and you’re more marketable for NIL, and more marketable for playing time. 
 
Mid-major assistant coach 2: Yeah, it is trying to achieve exposure with your senior year ahead of you so like the spring and summer. I think that that is maybe a really good time to get exposure from college coaches because college coaches, at this time, I think turn their attention to high school programs. So if a high school kid at least tries to in contact with the coaches, to visit the campuses, to be enthusiastic about the visits before starting the senior year, then in my opinion this puts them in a good position. If there is a great opportunity for them they shoudn’t wait till they nearly cease to exist because they become so unimportant as the season begins. During the season they are starting to know who is going, who is m staying, and they are strting to integrate older kids. Thus, the opportunity and the momentum (for high school recruits) is rather short-lived. Going aggressive for the first signing period, if there is opportunity I believe it is good, especially If there is something that is really interesting for them and they really ought to do it. 
 
And I think there will always be dominoes and effects that relate to moving out as well as transferring to a new place. As for the scenario of ten or fifteen years later, I suppose we will be able to see what has happened because of that. I don’t think it’s like something that we’re gonna know right now but these moving around kids have no home or real school to come back to, have no real network someplace. Such are precious assets for the individuals who turn out to be rather conventional when all is said and done. As for what happens after that, I don’t know, but, what I do know, is that what matters is, you go somewhere that you really want to be, somewhere that really wants you, and that gives you those opportunities.

Low-major head coach 4: That way, you can get to a place where you can start immediately and make yourself better. If that’s at a mid-major, if that’s at a lower level, I think over time you will make just as much as you will make going to a high major school at that time. Yeah, we had a local kid go to a high-major and he went there one year early and redshirted and probably isn’t going to play a lot this year. Suppose, one day he comes to our place? He’s learning. He’s growing. He is in the process of growing while performing. Assuming his average score is 8 in his first year as a true freshman — eight and five. And then he ends up averaging 14 points and the number seven, eight rebounds. And that’s at probably the minimum his sophomore year in high school, which is a long way off. That means he’s going to be one of the most sought after assets for a (high-major) school out there in college basketball. 
 
Mid-major head coach 2: You gotta try to find a place that first of all does believe in player development, try to find a place that’s been able to take high school players and then make them better players. Ensure that what the system will deliver is in line with what you do. The key to success for any player in terms of making a decision is really threefold: For example, the question of, ‘Am I going to develop? Does the system fit me? Is there an opportunity for me to play?’ coming from a young perspective I think when you have those things it gives you the best opportunity as a young player to be successful. 
 
High-major head coach 3: My advice would be no different than it was 20 years ago: The business school where you feel comfortable, which you know the coach, the style of play, the degree, is the business where you should go to. Even now I can truthfully say I am a 100% convert it is about relationships, it is about success, it is about joy. 
 
High-major head coach 4: Well every kid is different. If your son grew up wanting to play at Kansas, and he’s not going to play much, I’d tell him to go redshirt at Kansas and then get in the pipeline, learn, adjust and go on. If I will be in such a situation where it involves a kid who really needs money, I would suggest that the kid goes and plays, put up numbers and then transfer and get the money. 
 
High-major head coach 5: This way, they learned who they were, to start with. Do you truly have the potential to become the 31st ranked football player in the United States, but have a likely possibility that you will only ever last for one season on the football field? Do you have an inside joke that this is your senior year and you are the 31st player in the country, and last week you get a huge scoring boost, but there is no chance that you are going to transfer after one season? I would not go to a school that signs four to five players to the portal every spring. I would not utter that word. Why? Why risk it? And you still get to have some of that (leverage) when you are one of those (top high school) guys. You’re a good player. You’re ranked high. You are not an elite guy in other people’s thoughts, but you are right at the doorstep knocking. I guess with that, I am 30 to 150. 
 
But that’s what kids keep doing: to go places and the schools are taking high-level high school guys, then they go and sign four or five 22-, 23-year-olds. I think this is going to soften because we’re gonna get past this COVID year and the changes are going to stick. That is why after next year it is going to be softer, at least in terms of the measure that is being described here. Yeah, it will be that easy for the kid coming in after it softens because the number of people in the cohort will not be as large as that. What you’re not going to have as many older people in the cohort because people aren’t seeking out a fifth year. 
 
Mid-major assistant coach 3: You just get a school and get a level that you feel like you can grow with that, get know if they have a good NIL. Personally, I’m not sure if I would make my entire decision based on NIL, if I am a high schooler. Have they had instances where high school kids go through this talent development program and make it? I don’t know if I would pick a school if in the last couple of years their top athletes are transfers. Which is why many high school kids fail, they choose schools, and then one day you realize, that particular school failed in handling high schoolers. 
 
Mid-major Head Coach 3: Okay if there is find a place you think you can hopefully start if there is the opportunity. Isn’t it possible for at least the level higher than the one recruiting you to be recruiting you, well fine. But if you feel like there’s a path to get on the floor and an opportunity to play, that’s gonna be your fastest way to: A) develop, B) increase your marketability to obtain more NIL. Yes, there has been a dramatical change in the kind of discussions we have had. I was amused after joking with a couple of other new up and coming players that here in previous years, parents would be coming to you gingerly inquiring about the number of years for my contract. Hi, are you are going to be here for a while? 
 
To those questions now they do not even arise. At the level that I’m at, there’s no sense denying the fact that you really do have to relook at what is best for everyone going forward year end and year out. And if somebody has an opportunity, like we’ve had players here the last few years that have had the opportunities to go increase what they’re making five and six, seven times as much, then we’re going to be all for it. Well, as it is said, if the players are reaching that stage then they are sure to assisting in winning of games. 
 
High-major head coach 5: My advice would be not to have a agent or have anyone that you need to report to at all. To us, the most desirable recruits are the ones where it’s just mom and dad or just mom and high school coach because I feel like anything more than that is going to add more of a chance of something going wrong.

Mid-major head coach 6: You ought to go somewhere that you are going to be utilized and cultivate. The last thing you can do is go someplace early in your career and not get a chance to play and grow because the only thing that will be damaged that way is your career, c’mon. The best players are not just lovers but want to play and be given a chance. Two, it is going to stunt your growth if you hope to be able to play the sport professionally when you are done. The third result is it damages your brand. If you want to build your brand and maybe one day actually have a ‘get rich’ NIL moment, that you harm yourself. 
 
High-major head coach 7: Seek a place that will help you grow.