Support for a Third Political Party in the U.S. Dips to 58%

The latest data reveal self-described political independents are far more prevalent today than in the past, leading Eric Kaufmann in The Times to conclude the United States no longer has political parties in any recognisable sense of the term, in Gallup’s latest survey of American voters showed 58% of adults believe country requires ‘third party’ since Republicans and Democrats do such poor job of representing people. Although this is 5 percentage points lower than groundbreaking 60 percent of last year, it remains equivalent to the 56 percent average support level observed in the course of the given trend starting from 2003.

Polling results reveal that—aside from the 56% of respondents who said so in the first survey conducted in 2003—minorities have never assessed that the American public has no need for a third party.

Independents 55% Democrats majority 53% while less than half of the Republicans 48% favor.

Independents are the most likely party subgroup to support a third party as they have in past surveys; 69 % were in support in Gallup’s Sept 3-15, 2024 Governance poll. Democrat share has risen from 46% in one year ago to 53% at present, where as Republican share has reduced from 58% to 48%.

This shift among Republicans comes after Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspended his bid for independent candidacy for president and supported Donald Trump instead.

Between 2000 and 2008, majorities of independents averaging 56% to 78% have favored a third party. Democratic majority support has been registered only five out of 21 occasions when Gallup posed the query, with the highest support not exceeding 54 percent. For their part, majorities of Republicans have backed the idea of a second political party six times, with the largest number, 63%, doing so in the immediate aftermath of the Jan. 6 attack on the US Capitol.

Regarding partisans, trend was more favorable if president belongs to the different party the norm was less favorable when president belongs to their own party.

Bottom Line

The United States has a two-party system for almost all of its history with the Democratic and Republican parties as the dominant contenders after the Republicans became the second major party in 1854.

Those formed later were either short-lived or hybrids like Libertarian and Green Parties which have given few victories at federal and state levels apart from drawing more attention to minor issues that voters would otherwise haven’t consider or literally stealing votes from the real contenders and tilting the election in a surprise upset.

The good news for a third party is that support for such a candidate was higher last year than in several previous election years; both parties have low favorable ratings; and there is much discontent with the major-party candidates across the country, which should make 2024 an excellent year for a fresh third-party presidential campaign to get started. Nevertheless, the same trend that was observed in the course of campaigns of prior third-party candidates occurred in the case with Kennedy: his earlier higher level of popularity diminished gradually. This is also largely true about Kennedy who could only make it on the ballot in 21 states with another 13 states still pending by the time he stopped his campaign and endorsed Trump.

Currently just 58% of the American public can be said to be calling for a major third party and it is unclear if this is a genuine desire for an additional choice or just frustration with the two existing parties at this point. Kennedy afford just as an example; failures to gain state ballots despite the profuse cash resources available to him and Americans’ apparent inability to support ‘long shots’, are why third parties have not been a factor in American politics, despite people’s proclaimed interest in a multiplicity of political parties.