Canadians and Mexicans nervously watch the US election

Canadians and Mexicans are now glued to their television screens waiting for Americans to elect their next president.

Politics is not something that one would bring up in banter with neighbors for some Canadian who lives right beside the US.

“You don’t touch politics and you don’t touch religion,” says 85-year-old Ernie who resides in the Canadian town of Fort Erie, close to the border of the American city of Buffalo, New York.

But for some in Fort Erie, Ontario, politics can happen, particularly over a couple of beers, and with a U.S. presidential election on the horizon.

Just a stone’s throw from the iconic Peace Bridge that links the two nations is Patio Bar & Grill Southsides; the US native bartender Lauren mentioned often having to intervene political disputes.

“It does, especially when one has taken some alcohol to say the least. This kind of system everybody will have their say here,” she laughs while shaking her head.

About 2,000 miles (3,200 kilometres) south-west in the Mexican border city of Juarez, Sofia Ana is among those stuck in Monday morning’s traffic jam waiting to cross into El Paso, Texas to work.

She adds: “There is higher employment in America, there is better remuneration”.

Ana is one of an estimated 500, 000 Mexicans who legally commute across the border to the US on a day basis.

It is in their interest that the relations between the two countries remain friendly. “It touches us… it is really emotional,” affirms Ana looking out her car window.

More than 155 million Americans are expected to participate in the US presidential election scheduled for 5 November, so the result will be more noticeable around the world. No more so than its largest trading partners Canada and Mexico which have resisted integration in favour of protectionism.

In actual exports and Imports of goods alone last year, Mexico sits atop of the list as the biggest trading partner of the US standing at $807bn (£621 bn).

At the same time, the US’s goods trade with Canada in 2023 was in second place on $782 billion. The figure however for the US and China stood $576bn.

Donald Trump win the US election making the future trading relationships between Mexico and Canada with the US less clear. This is because he plans to put into action great import tariffs, which is quite expensive to anyone who involves themselves in the business. These would be 60 % for goods from China and 20% on products from other countries, apparently including Mexico and Canada.

On the other hand, Kamala Harris is believed to support the continued more open trade policies of President Biden. Although this, she has voted nay on the 2020 United States Mexico Canada Agreement (USMCA) free trade deal arguing that it is not ambitious enough on climate change..

Trump and Harris have ‘cstdlibely divergent’ views on the future of the US economy in the international system, stated one research in September.

Still in Juarez, shop owner Adrian Ramos asserts that political uncertainty in the US is one other thing that business people like him have come to expect. “We’ve seen it all,” he says.

Mr Ramos also says that he thinks that the result for his business will be affected whoever wins in US on 5 November. “If Trump lands here it will take longer to cross over to the States,
if Harris, it may not take time but there will be some changes depending on the winner.”

In the rural Canadian township of Puslinch, Ontario, beef farmer Dave Braden is far from happy with Trump getting back to the White House.

“The concern is that Trump will come up with a policy for instance the tariffs and just say ‘move on’ and that is aggressive,” says Mr Braden, surrounded by the hay bales in one of the fields with his cattle.

“I believe with Harris we are assuming that she understands the bilateral relation between the two countries and we will cooperate.”

The Canadian Chamber of Commerce equally fears that if Trump were to be rerurned to office, fresh tariffs could be set in place. It predicted that 10% tariff on Canadian imports, a level that Trump has spoken of before, will cost every Canadian and American $CA1,100 ($800;£615) a year.

According to this, the Canadian government has been negotiating with Trump’s advisors to make an exception for Canada in case the later happens.

While such sentiments are palpable in Canada not every Canadian has such fears towards Trump. “Another Ontario farmer who is supporting him didn’t want to be named, but said he feels the former president is stronger on the economy which is good for Canada.”

To some Trump supporters, said Georganne Burke, the Republicans Overseas Canada chapter leader, it’s perfectly reasonable not to talk about him. This laid down the marker for her argument that says that supporting Trump is “not a popular position to be in”.

New polls indicate that Harris is vastly more popular among Canadians than Trump has ever been.

The USMCA was signed in 2018 between Trump and other neighboring countries hence it means that it can be renegotiated in 2026.

With that on his mind, Canada’s Minister for Innovation, Science and Industry Francois Champagne tells the BBC he is checking US election polls daily.

And it is the awareness that such a valued relationship exists. And that is why I tell you it is this indispensable relationship because when you look at everything you will see how indispensable we are to one another,” he adds.

In the next one and a half month before the election, Mr Champagne is going round meeting the Americans of both faction. In his words “connecting the dots”.

For example if I get to talk to the governor of South Carolina which is endowed with a plant in the auto sector, I tell him most of these critical minerals are originating from Canada. “It is as the statement underlines, that everybody must understand it is a dependence in the North American context and it is a security supply chain, but also a growth agenda for North America.”

Lila Abed an expert on US-Mexico relations believes that “regardless of what happens in November there are going to be three subject matters immigration, security and trade that are going to be on the bilateral agenda with Mexico and have to be addressed immediately.”

“It is surprising that [new Mexican president] Claudia Sheinbaum has not appointed an ambassador to the US,” is an addition of Ms Abed, director of the Mexico Institute at the Wilson Centre, a think tank based in Washington.

“I do not think that will be announced until after the US presidential elections, because she wants to take into consideration what kind of person she wants representing her in Washington after the result.”

Ms Abed overall forecast for 2026 is that the USMCA renegotiation will center on US attempts to prevent a rise in Chinese investment in Mexico.

“Where Republicans and Democrats actually agree is on attempting or attempting to slow or even halt Chinese investment in Mexico, which is a fact that both political parties in America do not favor,” she says.

“As much as I think that of course the tone and the policies will inevitably change depending on who ends up in the White House, I think the main issues on the bilateral agenda will.”

Here’s some context to the race for the White House from North America correspondent Anthony Zurcher, who debunks the day’s big political stories in his twice weekly US Election Unspun newsletter. UK readers can join here. For those of you outside the UK, you can register here.